111,000
According to analysis by KFF, 111,000 Nebraskans could see their healthcare premiums double at the end of 2025 if premium tax credits (PTCs) are not reauthorized. These individuals currently have coverage under the marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010. The marketplaces are designed to fill the gap for people who don’t qualify for Medicare or Medicaid, but don’t have access to affordable employer-based insurance coverage. Enhancements made by the 2021 American Rescue Plan and sustained by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act created premium tax credits, which cover a larger share of enrollees’ premiums than they did in prior years, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. These enhanced PTCs make premiums very affordable, according to CBPP, which outlines that in states that use HealthCare.gov, nearly 3 in 4 people shopping for a marketplace plan can find one for less than $10 per month.
KFF projects that some of the steepest premium spikes will be felt by those nearing retirement who reside in rural areas across Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District. Their analysis estimates that a 60-year-old couple making $82,000 in CD3 would see a 363% increase in monthly premiums, raising the cost for a Silver-level plan from $581 to $2,687 per month. A 40-year-old making $31,000 annually would see a 165% increase in premiums in CD3, as well. The rest of Nebraska doesn’t fare much better, seeing average premium increases across all enrollees receiving PTCs of 99% in CD1 and 102% in CD2.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that under the House bill, 14-16 million Americans would lose health insurance coverage, including 7.8 million losing Medicaid and millions more losing coverage under the ACA if the PTCs are not reauthorized. The Senate bill makes even further cuts; CBO analysis is pending. Additionally, healthy enrollees dropping coverage would likely cause further upward pressure on premiums for those who need coverage the most.
$96.7 billion
According to the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy, undocumented immigrants contributed $96.7 billion to the American economy through federal, state and local taxes in 2022, the most recent year for which data was available. This includes $59.4 billion paid to the federal government and $37.3 billion paid to state and local governments. ITEP goes on to share that more than a third of the tax dollars paid by undocumented immigrants go toward payroll taxes dedicated to funding programs that these workers are barred from accessing. Undocumented immigrants paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes, $6.4 billion in Medicare taxes, and $1.8 billion in unemployment insurance taxes in 2022.
Under the budget reconciliation package currently under consideration in the Senate, several provisions would use the tax structure to further punish not only undocumented individuals, but also many United States citizens who reside with someone who is undocumented. Many tax credits and programs would begin requiring a Social Security Number from all members of the household to claim them on income tax returns.
We previously reported on effects to the Child Tax Credit, one of the nation’s most effective tools for the elimination of child poverty, but the impact would be felt across a variety of other programs, as well. The provisions of the bill that eliminate income tax on tips and overtime require a Social Security Number for both the person claiming the break and their spouse, according to Market Watch. The same is true for a proposed tax break on social security benefits, the American Opportunity Tax Credit and Lifetime Learning Tax Credits, which are meant to defray the cost of higher education, and accounts seeded by the federal government to save for a child’s education.
The aforementioned premium tax credits would be limited even more significantly, available only to legal permanent residents and immigrants from specific countries. This would mean people with other legal status such as refugees, trafficking victims, asylees and skilled foreign workers, who are present in the country legally, would be excluded from premium tax credits to make health care accessible.
Additionally, the bill imposes a 3.5% remittance tax on all non-commercial transfers of money to other countries. Such transfers are often used by workers in the United States to send money to family members in other countries. A credit would be issued for remittance taxes paid, but limited only to those who supply a Social Security Number and that of their spouse if filing jointly. Analysis by the Tax Foundation posits that this will only drive money transfers to less trackable channels, such as cash and cryptocurrency, creating more paperwork for little revenue gain.
1.5%
Nebraska Tax Commissioner James Kamm released May reporting on general fund receipts for both the month and fiscal year to date earlier this week. The reporting shows that net general fund receipts missed projections made by the Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board in April by 1.5%, collecting $5.481 billion, compared to a forecasted $5.563 billion for the fiscal year to date, a difference of $82 million.
The report includes a breakdown of May net receipts by tax category, outlining significantly lower receipts on corporate and individual income taxes, at 49% and 28.6% below forecast, respectively. This contributed to net receipts of $489 million, or 14.4% below the forecasted $571 million for the month.
If this trend continues, the legislature will have significant work to do in order to make budget amendments in the second half of the biennium.
If you would like to take a deeper dive into the currently proposed changes to Medicaid and learn what is at stake for Nebraskans, please join us and our friends at Nebraska Appleseed for a Town Hall. Policy Analyst, Trever Toteve will join other local experts to share information and what you can do to ensure our neighbors have access to the health care they need. Bring a friend!
Monday, June 23
6:00 PM – 8:00 PM
Tri-Faith Center, 13136 Faith Plaza, Omaha, NE
