$120 million

H.R. 1 also made significant changes to states’ ability to collect revenue via Medicaid Provider Taxes, including prohibiting any new taxes and decreasing the value of existing ones for states like Nebraska, where Medicaid expansion has been adopted. Nebraska, like all other states but Alaska, utilizes provider taxes to fund the non-federal portion of Medicaid expenditures, and the provision of H.R. 1 has left about $120 million in FY2026 revenue for the state in limbo. 

The Nebraska Legislature adopted LB 527, a new provider tax, in 2025, prior to the passage of H.R. 1. According to the text of the bill, the tax is allowable, but guidance issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), indicates it may limit taxes only to those enacted and imposed prior to the July 4, 2025 signing date of H.R. 1. Under these definitions, there is potential for LB 527 to be considered a new provider tax and therefore prohibited under the preliminary guidance. Nebraska would have begun taxing providers as of January 1, 2026, but there has been no indication that the tax has been approved by CMS or whether we are collecting the assessment. 

6.8 million

Across the United States, a pair of tax credits have lifted 6.8 million people out of poverty, according to research by the Tax Policy Center. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC) are some of the most effective anti-poverty measures for working families, but eligibility rules and complexities in the tax code can shut many eligible families out. 

Under H.R. 1, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Congress made significant changes to eligibility for families that include an immigrant adult, even if all children in the household are United States citizens. In order to claim the Child Tax Credit, at least one adult in the family must have a social security number. This means that for many legally-present refugee families, asylees, and those who are working their way toward permanent status, the benefits of the CTC will not be possible. The EITC has even stricter guidelines, requiring social security numbers from both adults and all dependent children in order to claim. 

H.R. 1 did include an increase in the CTC from $2,000 to $2,200 per child in the 2025 tax year, but many families will be ineligible since the structural elements of the program that excluded the lowest-earning families were not updated. Because the bill raises the credit level without reforming the refundability structure, families will need more income to receive the full credit moving forward. For instance, a single parent with two children will now have to earn at least $33,700, and a married couple with two children will now have to earn at least $41,500. Approximately 19.3 million children, or close to 30% of children in the country, will not receive the full $2,200 CTC in 2025 as a result. 

Additionally, many families who are eligible simply do not know that they can claim the credits. Locally, Senator Danielle Conrad has introduced LB 1189, which would establish a one-year pilot program to allocate grants to organizations dedicated to raising awareness of the EITC, including filing assistance where appropriate. 

3.0%

According to the Urban Institute’s State Economic Monitor, Nebraska’s unemployment rate for November 2025 remained among the lowest in the nation at 3.0%. This compares with a nationwide rate of 4.6% and is lower than all neighboring states except South Dakota, which sits at 2.1%. Nebraska’s total employment across all sectors declined slightly year over year, by 0.02%, which puts the Cornhusker State among 9 others recording a decline. Among the sectors most significantly driving the downward trendline is federal government employment, which declined 6.32% year over year, compared to the national rate of 8.81%, largely due to significant layoffs included in an effort to promote government efficiency by the current administration. 

Nebraska showed slight improvement year over year when examining average weekly earnings. Adjusted for inflation, Nebraskans are earning just less than half a percentage point more than last year, making it one of 18 states to show positive movement. Nationwide, average earnings declined by 1.04% in September, 2025, the most recent month for which this data was available.

Updated numbers that reflect the closure of the Tyson plant in Lexington are forthcoming and expected to impact trendlines significantly. The closure is expected to directly impact 3,200 jobs and indirectly impact an additional 4,000, according to research by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.