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OpenSkyLIGHTS: Focus on Nebraska fiscal policy (1/16/26)

27%

KFF, the health policy think tank, indicates that 27% of agricultural sector employees buy health care plans on state marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), compared with just 6% of the adult population with non-group coverage. As a result, agricultural workers are among the highest users of state marketplaces for health insurance. 

Premium tax credits to make health insurance affordable lapsed as of December 31, 2025. The House of Representatives recently passed a 3-year extension, but Senate negotiations are ongoing and would potentially include income caps and a shift to health savings accounts, which OpenSky previously reported are an inadequate substitute for most marketplace participants

About 1 in 4 Nebraskans work in jobs that are either in agricultural production or adjacent industries. Farming results in a 7 times higher rate of work-related fatality than the national average, underscoring the unique risks producers face due to work with heavy machinery, chemicals and large livestock. The average cost of a farming injury is $10,878 in medical care and an additional $4,735 in lost work income, according to the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Foregoing insurance coverage, as many have done after premiums increased by triple digits, is likely to be a risky gamble for agricultural producers.

 

10

A recent semi-annual survey from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)  explored the fiscal condition of state budgets, including state general fund revenues, expenditures, and balances. NASBO noted that 34 states in fiscal year 2025 reported revenue collections exceeding original estimates, 6 states reported revenues on target and 10 states, including Nebraska, reported lower-than-expected receipts. This was largely driven by personal income tax receipts, which were 27% lower than projected in FY2025 in Nebraska.

Federal Funds Information for States (FFIS) uses NASBO data to create the Continuum of State Fiscal Stress. Indicators of fiscal stress, for which states receive one point each, include whether states enacted reduced spending midyear to account for revenue gaps, the accuracy of revenue predictions, whether states ended FY2025 with balances equal or greater than 5% of general fund spending and whether total balances as a share of general fund spending declined between FY2024 and FY2025. Ten states received a fiscal stress score of 0 for FY2025. A state triggering all four indicators would receive 4 points, but for the 5th year in a row, no state received a score of 4. Only one state, New Hampshire, received 3 points, indicating high fiscal stress. Thirty-three states received a score of 1, indicating moderately few challenges to the fiscal picture. Nebraska was among the 6 states receiving a 2-point score, indicating a higher-than-average rate of fiscal stress, as evidenced by significant budget shortfalls heading into the budget cycle

 

4.83%

Between 2024 and 2025, average rent prices rose 4.83% in Nebraska, outpacing the national average of 4%, according to a study conducted by Premier Timber Frame Builders cited in the Nebraska Examiner. More apartment buildings were completed in 2024, but construction has since slowed. 

That slowdown is likely to continue, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, which projects that overall construction sector output could fall by 4.1% over the next three years as a result of tariffs. Steel, copper and aluminum each face a 50% tariff, and softwood lumber and timber products are at 10%. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center suggests that currently active and announced tariffs will add roughly $30 billion to the annual cost of investment in residential structures in 2027, with about 90% of that cost—roughly $27 billion—affecting the cost of constructing new homes and apartments. The Center for American Progress estimates this will result in 450,000 fewer new homes being built over the next five years, through 2030. This would be equivalent to eliminating 6% of the homes constructed in the five years from 2020 to 2024, driving up costs even further. 

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OpenSkyLIGHTS: Focus on Nebraska fiscal policy (1/16/26)

27% KFF, the health policy think tank, indicates that 27% of agricultural sector employees buy health care plans on state marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), compared with just 6% of the adult population with non-group coverage. As a result, agricultural workers are among the highest users of