In a few hours, the Nebraska Economic Forecasting Board will meet to adjust revenue projections, a critical step in constructing the biennium budget. Stay tuned for updates on our social media and website. 

97.4

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), a non-profit, nonpartisan group that advocates for small businesses, has conducted a membership survey to evaluate the health of America’s small business environment for decades. They create a Small Business Optimism Index including 10 key factors like capital expenditure plans, inventory availability and satisfaction, and job openings. The index fell by 3.3 points in March falling below the 51-year average. This was the largest monthly decline since June 2022. The most significant obstacle reported by small business owners was labor quality, which remained at the top of the list of concerns for the second consecutive month.

Some of the erosion of optimism and financial health for small businesses could be tied to actions taken at the federal level. The Small Business Administration, like many federal agencies, announced significant reductions in personnel. Freezes on grants and contracts have been a significant blow to veteran-owned businesses. On Day 1 of the current administration, the President rescinded a policy that increased the share of federal purchasing contracts awarded to small businesses, which had helped them achieve record levels of support. Additionally, uncertainty around tariffs are leading to difficulty in projecting future input costs and sales.

According to the most recent available data from the Small Business Administration, Nebraska was home to 181,742 small businesses in 2023. They employed 418,311 individuals, or 48% of the state’s workforce.

88%

A recently-published study by the Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska Omaha, conducted on behalf of the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce, indicated that 88% of young professionals in the Omaha metropolitan area reported being somewhat or extremely satisfied with their overall quality of life. The survey asked a variety of questions to assess contentment with various aspects of life in Nebraska’s largest city, including housing, public transportation options, parks and recreational activities, overall cost of living and mental health services.

Availability of restaurants and bars, parks and trails, recreation facilities and activities, and healthcare services in Omaha were rated highly. Less enthusiasm was reported for cost of housing, walk and bike-friendly communities, and cost of taxes, which included sales, income and property taxes.

$3.2 Billion

According to analysis by the Center for American Progress (CAP), Nebraska currently exports $3.2 billion to China, Canada and the European Union, targets of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. The President enacted aggressive tariffs that, according to a report by the Yale Budget Lab, result in an overall effective tariff rate of 27%, the highest in the nation since 1903. When added to previous tariffs, this imposes a 145% tariff on most goods from China, 25% on some goods from Canada and Mexico and 10% on all other trading partners. They also include some item-specific tariffs on things like vehicles and auto parts.

CAP data shows that some industries, many of them centered in agriculture, will take significant hits under this policy. For instance, $666 million in meat and meat packaging products are exported to China, the European Union and Canada from Nebraska annually, or 21% of the total exports to these countries. Agriculture construction and machinery accounts for $431 million, or 13% of total exports from the state. Pharmaceuticals and medicines make up another $268 million representing 8% of total exports, medical equipment and supplies an additional $159 million or 5% and oilseeds and grains at an additional $144 million, or 4.5% of total exports. As many agricultural producers continue planting, they operate under significant uncertainty as to the impact of fewer global markets on the success of their growing season. The Nebraska Farm Bureau estimates that Nebraska’s agricultural producers lost $943 million in revenues in 2019 as a direct result of retaliatory tariffs during the first Trump administration.