81%
A study released by Pew Research Center last month reported that 81% of voters surveyed indicated that the economy is among the most important issues they consider in the presidential election. The list also included Health Care in a distant second place at 65%, Supreme Court appointments at 63%, Foreign Policy at 62% and rounding out the top five, a tie between Violent Crime and Immigration at 61% each.
So how is the US economy faring? According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released this week, positive trends include:
- New job creation surpassing expectations, with the addition of 254,000 nonfarm jobs. This is more than double the 3-month average going into August.
- The prime-age employment-to-population ratio, measures the number of jobs available for people who are interested in working, remains at a 23-year high.
- Overall, unemployment rates declined slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%.
Consumers seem to be noticing the improvements, as reflected by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.1 in the September 2024 survey, up from 67.9 in August and above last September’s 67.8. A year ago, over 50% of consumers expected bad times for the economy in the next year; now, that share is only 28%.
Experts agree, with Mark Zandi of Moody’s sharing on social media that this is “among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist,” citing “rip-roaring” economic growth with GDP up 3% over the last year, full employment, record highs in the stock market, and declining inflation.
Nebraska’s Economic Forecasting Advisory Board will meet October 31, 2024, a key step to reflect on the state’s current economic health and to establish projected funds available as the upcoming biennial budget takes shape. OpenSky will offer analysis of the Board’s report as it becomes available.
18 Million
Expanding rental assistance to a universal guarantee could alleviate hardship for the 18 million households who are currently paying more than 30% of their total household income in housing costs or living in substandard or overcrowded housing, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. They highlight extraordinary wait times for housing subsidies, averaging 2.5 years nationwide, due to caps in the total program cost.
An analysis by the Urban Institute estimates that a universal housing voucher program would lift about 6.4 million people—including 2.5 million children—out of poverty, across all states. They estimate a 13% reduction in the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), and a 23% reduction for children. The reduction is most notable for families of color, particularly Hispanic families, who the Urban Institute projects would see the largest decreases in poverty with universal voucher access and use.
The Urban Institute projects that full availability and use of vouchers would reduce SPM in every state, with declines most notable among children. In Nebraska, the program would reduce childhood poverty by 10% and reduce poverty in the Hispanic population by 14%.
$3.5 billion
Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a report by researchers at the Yale School for Public Health raised the alarm about the economic impacts of seasonal respiratory viruses, focusing on influenza, which covers an array of viral infections including Influenza A and B. They outline the economic case for additional investments in a universal vaccine, which would protect against all strains of Influenza A, rather than reliance on novel formulation each year to target a specific strain.
The Yale data includes only direct costs related to hospitalization and medical care and don’t include the extended and significant impact on employees and employers, including lost wages, burdens related to caregiving, and other related costs. They estimate that if even 10% of those who receive seasonal vaccines would upgrade to a universal vaccine, assuming a 75% efficacy rate, it would result in 5.3 million fewer cases of influenza, 81,000 fewer hospitalizations, and 6,300 fewer deaths across the country. That would prevent $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to the status quo. If all individuals who currently receive seasonal vaccines were instead able to receive a universal vaccination, it could mitigate $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with higher populations of elderly residents or high rates of comorbidities would stand to benefit the most.
At the federal level, Congress has considered $1 billion in research grants over the next 5 years for development of a universal vaccine. Nebraska has become a hub for many types of biomedical research, but narrowly avoided a cash fund appropriation reduction of $15 million from biomedical research in FY 2024-25 during this summer’s special session.
The Centers for Disease Control recommends everyone 6 months and older in the United States, with rare exception, should get a flu vaccine every season. They advise that October is an ideal time to receive the immunization for the maximum chance of efficacy throughout the flu season.